It was two months ago that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG notably superior than the other team. For a team who have just won a ten-match winning streak, they look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again against United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the top corner forever.
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
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